Evaluations by academics and the CIA concede a 90% accuracy. So far, so much, so what and ho hum material as I had already already concluded, with rare Einsteinian foresight, that a little more math would do precisely what what Bruce Bueno created. However, what instantly straighted my spine and forced me to sit up and reread the article, Math Trek:Mathematical Fortune-Telling, was to discover that Col John R. Boyd, The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War invitation "to be or to do" is incorporated into Mesquita's game theory. The invitation here is explained at the web site Defense and the National Interest:
"Although Boyd associated with many junior officers during his Air Force career, there were a few, perhaps half a dozen, that he had such respect for that he invited them to join him on his quest for change. Each one would be offered the choice: Be someone – be recognized by the system and promoted – or do something that would last for the Air Force and the country.""Tiger, one day you will come to a fork in the road,” he said. “And you’re going to have to make a decision about which direction you want to go.” He raised his hand and pointed. “If you go that way you can be somebody. You will have to make compromises and you will have to turn your back on your friends. But you will be a member of the club and you will get promoted and you will get good assignments.” Then Boyd raised his other hand and pointed another direction. “Or you can go that way and you can do something – something for your country and for your Air Force and for yourself. If you decide you want to do something, you may not get promoted and you may not get the good assignments and you certainly will not be a favorite of your superiors. But you won’t have to compromise yourself. You will be true to your friends and to yourself. And your work might make a difference.” He paused and stared into the officer’s eyes and heart. “To be somebody or to do something. In life there is often a roll call. That’s when you will have to make a decision. To be or to do. Which way will you go?
Deciding how some one will answer this question using quantitative models is explained in the Science New Online article as "accommodating the vagaries of human nature":
To accommodate the vagaries of human nature, the players are cursed with divided souls. Although all the players want to get their own preferred policies adopted, they also want personal glory. Some players are policy-wonks who care only a little about glory, while others resemble egomaniacs for whom policies are secondary.
What next?
Only the players themselves know how much they care about each of those goals. An important aspect of the negotiation process is that by seeing which proposals are accepted or rejected, players are able to figure out more about how much other players care about getting their preferred policy or getting the glory.
